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Tilly's (TLYS) Lined Up for Q1 Earnings: Key Factors to Note
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Tilly's, Inc. (TLYS - Free Report) is likely to witness a decline in the top line when it reports first-quarter fiscal 2022 numbers on Jun 2, after the market close. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $145.9 million, suggesting a decline of 10.6% from the prior-year reported figure.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly earnings per share has been stable at 3 cents over the past 30 days. It suggests a sharp decline from earnings of 36 cents reported in the year-ago period. The bottom line of this specialty retailer of casual apparel, footwear, accessories and hard goods missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by a margin of 7.3% in the last reported quarter.
Key Factors to Note
On its last earnings call, Tilly's had guided first-quarter fiscal 2022 net sales between $143 million and $148 million, which suggests a significant decline from $163.2 million reported in the year-ago period. This is due to lapping record government stimulus and pent-up demand last year, and the current economic scenario. Management highlighted concerns related to the prevailing inflationary environment, supply chain bottlenecks, labor challenges and geopolitical tensions.
Tilly's projected comparable net sales decline of 10-13% for the first quarter. It estimated earnings to be roughly breakeven to 5 cents a share, sharply down from 36 cents reported in the year-ago quarter. We believe soft top-line performance and any deleverage in SG&A expenses might have weighed on margins, and in turn, the bottom line. In the last reported quarter, SG&A expenses had increased 20.2%, owing to higher store payroll and increased marketing expenses.
Despite the aforementioned headwinds, we cannot ignore Tilly's effort to mitigate these challenges. The company’s consumer-centric approach, product initiatives, prudent inventory management and focus on improving distribution efficiencies might have provided some cushion.
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Tilly's this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that’s not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Here are some companies that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat:
Kroger (KR - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +3.15% and a Zacks Rank #2. The company is expected to register bottom-line growth when it reports first-quarter fiscal 2022 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly earnings per share of $1.27 suggests growth of 6.9% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.
Kroger’s top line is anticipated to rise year over year. The consensus mark for revenues is pegged at $43.22 billion, indicating an increase of 4.7% from the year-ago quarter. KR has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 22.1%, on average.
Designer Brands (DBI - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +4.35% and a Zacks Rank #2. The company is likely to register an increase in the bottom line when it reports first-quarter fiscal 2022 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly earnings per share of 23 cents suggests an increase of 91.7% from the year-ago reported number.
Designer Brands’ top line is expected to increase year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $806.7 million, which indicates an improvement of 14.7% from the prior-year quarter. DBI has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 112.8%, on average.
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +2.21% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company is likely to register an increase in the bottom line when it reports second-quarter 2022 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly earnings per share of $9.06 suggests an increase of 21.4% from the year-ago reported number.
Chipotle Mexican Grill’s top line is expected to increase year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $2.24 billion, which indicates growth of 18.6% from the prior-year quarter. CMG has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 9.3%, on average.
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Tilly's (TLYS) Lined Up for Q1 Earnings: Key Factors to Note
Tilly's, Inc. (TLYS - Free Report) is likely to witness a decline in the top line when it reports first-quarter fiscal 2022 numbers on Jun 2, after the market close. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $145.9 million, suggesting a decline of 10.6% from the prior-year reported figure.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly earnings per share has been stable at 3 cents over the past 30 days. It suggests a sharp decline from earnings of 36 cents reported in the year-ago period. The bottom line of this specialty retailer of casual apparel, footwear, accessories and hard goods missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by a margin of 7.3% in the last reported quarter.
Key Factors to Note
On its last earnings call, Tilly's had guided first-quarter fiscal 2022 net sales between $143 million and $148 million, which suggests a significant decline from $163.2 million reported in the year-ago period. This is due to lapping record government stimulus and pent-up demand last year, and the current economic scenario. Management highlighted concerns related to the prevailing inflationary environment, supply chain bottlenecks, labor challenges and geopolitical tensions.
Tilly's projected comparable net sales decline of 10-13% for the first quarter. It estimated earnings to be roughly breakeven to 5 cents a share, sharply down from 36 cents reported in the year-ago quarter. We believe soft top-line performance and any deleverage in SG&A expenses might have weighed on margins, and in turn, the bottom line. In the last reported quarter, SG&A expenses had increased 20.2%, owing to higher store payroll and increased marketing expenses.
Despite the aforementioned headwinds, we cannot ignore Tilly's effort to mitigate these challenges. The company’s consumer-centric approach, product initiatives, prudent inventory management and focus on improving distribution efficiencies might have provided some cushion.
Tilly's, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Tilly's, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Tilly's, Inc. Quote
What the Zacks Model Unveils
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Tilly's this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that’s not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Tilly's has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
3 Stocks With Favorable Combination
Here are some companies that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat:
Kroger (KR - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +3.15% and a Zacks Rank #2. The company is expected to register bottom-line growth when it reports first-quarter fiscal 2022 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly earnings per share of $1.27 suggests growth of 6.9% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.
Kroger’s top line is anticipated to rise year over year. The consensus mark for revenues is pegged at $43.22 billion, indicating an increase of 4.7% from the year-ago quarter. KR has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 22.1%, on average.
Designer Brands (DBI - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +4.35% and a Zacks Rank #2. The company is likely to register an increase in the bottom line when it reports first-quarter fiscal 2022 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly earnings per share of 23 cents suggests an increase of 91.7% from the year-ago reported number.
Designer Brands’ top line is expected to increase year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $806.7 million, which indicates an improvement of 14.7% from the prior-year quarter. DBI has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 112.8%, on average.
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +2.21% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company is likely to register an increase in the bottom line when it reports second-quarter 2022 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly earnings per share of $9.06 suggests an increase of 21.4% from the year-ago reported number.
Chipotle Mexican Grill’s top line is expected to increase year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $2.24 billion, which indicates growth of 18.6% from the prior-year quarter. CMG has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 9.3%, on average.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.